Storm predicted for later in week

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHIFT REMAINS ON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD IS REPLACED BY A MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW PW VALUES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE
PICTURE STARING OVER THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS…ALL INDICATIONS ARE THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH BAY WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY DECREASING THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. LATEST CNRFC
NUMBERS SHOW LOCALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT IN SONOMA
COUNTY…2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH BAY PLUS SC
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA LUCIAS…1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF SF
BAY…HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FOR THE SOUTH BAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY SO 6 DAY
NUMBERS ISSUED TOMORROW SHOULD SEE EVEN HIGHER VALUES.

WILL ISSUE AN SPS THIS MORNING AS A HEADS UP AND WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE POPS PLUS MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WHILE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN REMAINS
QUITE A BIT LOWER.

~ by bigsurkate on February 2, 2015.

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