Flash Flood Warning

•October 16, 2016 • 3 Comments

Following Flash Flood Warning from the National Weather Service.

Bulletin – EAS Activation Requested
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Francisco Ca
958 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2016

The National Weather Service In The San Francisco Bay Area Has Issued A

* Flash Flood Warning For…
Southwestern Monterey County In Central California…

* Until 600 PM PDT Sunday

* At 957 AM PDT…Doppler Radar And Automated Rain Gauges Indicated
Heavy Rain Falling Across The Warned Area. Flash Flooding Is
Expected To Begin Shortly.

* Some Locations That Will Experience Flooding Include…
Sobranes Burn Area…Big Sur Village…Lucia…
Tassajara Hot Springs…Gorda…Jamesburg…
Carmel Valley Village…Pico Blanco Campground…
Cachagua Near The Los Padres Dam…
Julia Pfeiffer Burns State Park…Andrew Molera State Park…
San Clemente Dam…Partington Ridge…Esalen Institute…
Big Sur Raws And Arroyo Seco Raws.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions…

Move Away From Recently Burned Areas. Life-Threatening Flooding Of
Creeks…Roads And Normally Dry Arroyos Is Likely. The Heavy Rains
Will Likely Trigger Rockslides…Mudslides And Debris Flows In Steep
Terrain…Especially In And Around These Areas

From LPNF Supervisor

•October 13, 2016 • 5 Comments

“This evening (this was sent late last night), the Soberanes Wildfire was reported at 100% containment, with a total size of 132,127 acres, and 83 days in duration.

I wanted to extend my thanks to all the firefighters, incident management teams, partners, cooperators and the public for the cooperation and teamwork with the Los Padres Forest Staff to collectively bring this exceptionally challenging wildfire to full containment.

The public should be aware that smoldering areas will continue to put up smoke, but are well within the fire perimeter. This will continue until a season-ending rain event occurs. A cooling and moistening trend is expected this week with a high probability of rain over the weekend.

Work continues on suppression repair, approximately 297 out of 384 miles repaired, and BAER efforts for the remainder of the fire area are planned. Attached are the PIO, Operations, and Progression Maps for your reference. (I have not included them)

Fire camps at Molera, Rana, and Toro are scheduled for breakdown and relocation to a consolidated camp at the fairgrounds in King City.

The Monterey Ranger District of the Los Padres National Forest remains closed to public access. The only recreation sites that remain open are Plaskett Creek and Kirk Creek Campgrounds, Pfeiffer Beach, Sand Dollar Beach and Willow Creek Day Use areas. All trails are closed within the Ventana and Silver Peak Wilderness Areas.

We will continue to put “life first”, make sound risk based decisions, and evaluate exposures and risk in Suppression Repair and BAER as we have in suppression operations.

For more information, visit: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/ or follow us at http://www.facebook.com/LosPadresNationalForest or http://www.twitter.com/LosPadresNF.

Thanks for all the continued support,

Robert Baird
Forest Supervisor
Forest Service
Los Padres National Forest”

Soberanes is 100% contained

•October 12, 2016 • 13 Comments

Finally! The forest is still closed, and the burned areas will likely remain closed all winter,  if history is any indication, as it is too dangerous with slides, debris flows, and falling trees. The land and the critters need time to heal. Please allow them to do so. This was day 83.

Upcoming Storm Series

•October 12, 2016 • 13 Comments

Here is one graphic of possible expected rain by John Lindsey of SLO Co:


NOAA NWS is predicting 100% chance of rain on Friday in Big Sur, expected to be in the 1/2″ neighborhood. Keep an eye out for mudslides, but especially after the rains stop as the water makes its way down hillsides.

Insurance Questions Answered

•October 11, 2016 • Leave a Comment

Your Friends and Neighbors!

A Conversation with Dave Jones
California Insurance Commissioner

At the invitation of the Carmel Valley Association, California Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones is to appear in Carmel Valley on Oct. 16 for a discussion on local insurance issues, followed by a Q & A. Residents will have an opportunity to hear Commissioner Jones and ask him direct questions about insurance coverage and issues related to consumer protection. The event is free and open to the public.

When: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2pm – 4pm

Where: Del Mesa Carmel, Redwood Room, 500 Del Mesa Carmel

Who: California’s Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones leads the California Department of Insurance and regulates the California insurance market, the nation’s largest.

Co-hosted by the Carmel Valley Association (CVA) and the Fire Safe Council for Monterey County (FSCMC).

Season ending rains later this week?

•October 9, 2016 • 13 Comments

As Paul H. Commented on yesterday’s post (please read), we have the potential of a storm with significant consequences heading this way. Here is what NOAA and the NWS had to say today:

“A more significant pattern change is expected to begin Thursday as a broad upper level trough approaches the region. This system is progged to tap into a plume of moisture over the Pacific with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches. As this system approaches it will bring precipitation into northern Sonoma county Thursday afternoon and evening. While models have fallen into agreement on this there is still some disagreement with the timing and intensity of the rainfall for Friday. The Euro (ECMWF) is the more aggressive of the two models and brings rain as far south as the Monterey Bay Thursday night while the GFS keep rain changes north of the Golden Gate. The GFS appears to catch up to the Euro Friday night as it pushes the main rain band through the region. The Euro however remains the wetter of the two solutions.

Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain is anticipated Friday across the region. Heaviest precipitation is expected across the North Bay. Models indicate there will likely be a break the rain (GFS) or hit and miss showers (Euro) Saturday on the back side of the main frontal band. However a second round of showers is expected Sunday as the second boundary moves across the region. With a moist atmosphere in place the second boundary will have no trouble spreading widespread precipitation across the region. Rain is expected across the forecast area and will likely bring the season ending rains that the fires burning across the region have been waiting for.”


Soberanes Fire Update, 10/8/16

•October 8, 2016 • 6 Comments

Yesterday, Friday, I reported on FB that the Soberanes Fire had kicked up a bit on the interior portion. I could see the smoke from my place – no column, but smoke. So today’s inciweb reports this:

“A flare up occurred yesterday on the fire near Marble Peak, but was well within the burn perimeter. Today, a Hot Shot crew will make their way through the burned area to reach the hot spot to cool it down. Smoke might be visible from nearby communities, but rest assured that this hot spot is well within the burned area.
Efforts to remove the water tender yesterday were unsuccessful, towing equipment wasn’t capable and other equipment wasn’t available. Diesel fuel was successfully extracted from the fuel tanks, and nearby brush was cut back to allow easier extraction of the vehicle. Plans are put in place to remove the water tender when equipment becomes available.
Hot spots along the North Fork Big Sur Creek, north of Ventana Cone, and east of Church Ranch are trouble spots for fire managers. These areas are not accessible to firefighters on the ground due to steep and rocky terrain. It is not likely that fire will spread out of these areas due to a lack of continuous fuel bed, cooler overnight temperatures, and higher overnight humidities. Winds could be a problem if a hot spot were to reach a containment line, fire managers will continue to monitor conditions.”

Containment is still at 98% on Day 79.

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